Independent tracker
What SpaceX said. What actually happened.
Big promises are easy to make and easy to forget. We keep them in one place: the original plan, every date that moved, and the proof behind each status. No hype, no hot takes, just the record.
Records last checked 18 September 2026
Who checked this, and how?
Each record has a review note. It names who did the check and lists every claim that was compared with its source.
Right now these checks were done with AI help and have not yet been re-read by an independent human editor. We say this plainly on every page rather than hiding it.
A “review due” label means the record is older than two weeks and is scheduled for another look. The content is unchanged until then.
What do the status labels mean?
Announced: it has been said out loud, but we have not seen work toward it yet.
In progress: we can point to tests, hardware or contracts that show work under way.
Partially achieved: part of the job is done and shown, but not all of it.
Achieved: evidence matches the whole “done” description we wrote down.
Uncertain: sources disagree or are missing. We say so instead of guessing.
Paused or cancelled: a reliable source says work has stopped or the plan was dropped.
Full definitions →What is a milestone here?
A milestone is one thing SpaceX has said it will do. Fly a rocket to orbit. Move fuel between two ships in space. Start trading on the stock market.
For each one we write down exactly what would count as “done” before we judge it. That way the judgement cannot quietly move later.
Think of a friend saying “I’ll run a marathon this year.” The milestone is the marathon. Finishing a 10k is progress, but it is not the marathon.
How we decide →SpaceX says Starship goes orbital from Flight 14
A new target was recorded for orbital flight, tied to a flight number rather than a date. The same statement links operational Starlink V3 delivery and the first orbital propellant transfer to the start of orbital missions, so both records now carry that context. The 2026 propellant transfer window was neither restated nor withdrawn.
Terafab site named, with no schedule attached
Added a company-execution milestone for the Terafab facility in Grimes County. The record notes that the announcement's groundbreaking headline refers to a Tesla research fab at Giga Texas, not to construction in Grimes County, and that no completion date was stated.
Flight 13 deploys 20 Starlink V3 satellites, but not into a lasting orbit
Recorded the Flight 13 deployment as partial progress. All twenty satellites deployed and were communicated with, and SpaceX states they were expected to demise on reentry about twenty minutes later, so the record stays partially achieved rather than achieved.
What is a program?
A program is just a folder. It groups milestones that belong to the same big effort, such as Starship or Starlink.
A program with few milestones is not a program with little happening. It only means we have not yet written up more evidence-backed records for it.
Starship
The fully reusable Starship and Super Heavy launch system, its flight test campaign, and the lunar and interplanetary missions that depend on it.
Open programStarlink
The Starlink satellite constellation, including the next-generation Starlink V3 satellites and the launch capacity needed to deploy them.
Open programLaunch and reuse operations
Falcon launch cadence, reuse, range operations and the spaceport capacity that constrains how often SpaceX can fly.
Open programCompany execution
Corporate milestones such as the public listing and major facility commitments, tracked only where a primary company or exchange source states them.
Open program
What is a target window?
A target window is when the company said something would happen. Sometimes that is an exact day. Often it is only a month, a quarter or a year.
We keep it exactly as vague or as precise as the company did. If they said “2026”, we show 2026. We never turn that into a made-up day in December.
When a company gives a new date later, we keep the old one too. You can always see how the plan moved.
Saying “I’ll visit this summer” is a window. Saying “I’ll visit on 14 July” is an exact date. They are not the same promise.
- Aiming for 2026
Fly a long-duration Starship flight test
- Aiming for 2026
Demonstrate ship-to-ship propellant transfer in Earth orbit
| Promise | Program | Status | Aiming for | Said on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place Starship in orbit around Earth | Starship | Announced | Starting with Flight 14Open-ended precision | 15 September 2026 |
| Build the Terafab semiconductor facility in Grimes County, Texas | Company execution | Announced | No stated targetUnknown precision | 6 August 2026 |
| Deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites from Starship | Starlink | Partially achieved | From Flight 14 onwards, as part of Starship's orbital missionsOpen-ended precision | 24 July 2026 |
| Begin public trading under the ticker SPCX | Company execution | Achieved | 12 June 2026Exact date precision | 11 June 2026 |
| Fly the first commercial crewed Starship mission around the Moon | Starship | Announced | No stated targetUnknown precision | 21 May 2026 |
| Fly the first crewed Starship mission past Mars | Starship | Announced | No stated targetUnknown precision | 21 May 2026 |
| Fly the first Starship and Super Heavy V3 vehicles | Starship | Achieved | No target statedNone precision | 12 May 2026 |
| Demonstrate ship-to-ship propellant transfer in Earth orbit | Starship | In progress | 2026Year precision | 30 October 2025 |
| Fly a long-duration Starship flight test | Starship | Announced | 2026Year precision | 30 October 2025 |
| Launch Falcon more than 100 times from Florida in 2025Target date has passed; not yet confirmed either way. | Launch and reuse operations | Uncertain | 2025Year precision | 18 September 2025 |
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